Generating Scenarios by Structural Simulation

C. Domingo
(Instituto de Estadística, FACES, Universidad de Los Andes, Mérida, Venezuela,
Interdisciplinay Research Center, Dept. of Mathematical Sciences, SDSU, San Diego, CA, USA)
G. Tonella
(CESIMO, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Los Andes Mérida, Venezuela)
O. Terán
(CESIMO, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Los Andes Mérida, Venezuela)
6th. Annual Conference AI, Simulation and Planning in High Autonomy Systems, La Jolla, CA, 1996


Many processes of structural change in social systems are generated by the interaction of actors with different perceptions of the situation and different repertories of possible goals and tactics. A method to generate scenarios for these processes based on structural simulation is proposed. The actors select goals according to their perceptions of the system structure and behavior. From these perceptions and goals they select tactics through which the system structure may be changed. All these changes are simulated by means of rules with parameters, that can be affected by random or experimental changes. The simulation outputs are scenarios that may be helpful in decision making. GLIDER, a language based in network representation, was used for the simulation. An application is given that deals with the program of opening the exploitation of Venezuela's oil to private enterprises. Some possible developments of the method are indicated.